Everyone with a mouth or some other means of communication is making predictions today. Of course, damn few of them will be correct, but what the hell, it doesn’t stop them. So being a very poor amateur pundit, it won’t stop me either. Prediction: It doesn’t matter who wins this election.
It’s not that the political outcome of the race is unimportant. There will be big policy differences whoever wins. Both candidates have fundamentally different visions of the future, but it will look nothing like the one they ran on. It will begin to change with a switch to a new DJ at the inaugural Ball and won’t stop for 4 more years. But whoever wins, voters will all fall into one of two huge blocks – winners and losers.
Supreme Court, Gas Up the Limos
America will be lucky to escape a Bush v. Gore-style ending today. The Supreme Court better have their limos gassed and ready to come into the office and make a choice that a the country appears unable to make on its own. Whoever “wins” may make their victory speech from the steps of the Supreme Court. Nothing good ever comes of this kind of ending. We see what happened last time and there is every reason to suspect it would be much worse this time. I’ve decided to renounce atheism for the day only so I can pray to Christ that we aren’t dragged through the mud again. You can find me visiting Richard Dawkins’ grave tomorrow where I will beg his forgiveness for my one-day defection from logic. But given the stakes, I think even the irascible Richard would understand. He understood you can’t speak logic to the illogical.
Hopefully the Big Guy will listen to a poor lapsed Methodist like me. But even if he does, we’re still in bad straits. So much money has been laundered through so many places it is inevitable someone will find a dryer full of cash left in a lonely laundromat in Tulare, CA. No one will show up to claim it. They’ll still be investigating it the day Darrell Issa shuffles off this mortal coil. So many mystery ballot boxes will float in the Ohio River you could walk from Cincinnati, to Covington, KY on them. State elections officials won’t even be able to vote in their own elections because they can’t produce long-form birth certificates and DNA of their own like they demand from others. Election fraud, an almost unknown problem before people decided it was the worst problem in an ocean of problems, will rule the day. If you have children going to college soon, recommend a legal career. There will be an ample number of ambulances to chase before the fallout of this election settles.
Do the Antler Dance of Victory
The “winners” will shout, “HUZZAH!” and do an antler dance of victory. They will brag about their 3-vote electoral college “mandate” and crow about recapturing “their” country. There will be cotillons and fireworks and their minions will leap to the battlements to build them higher and higher to keep the opposing scum at bay. They will swear on a stack of Bibles, Korans, and Torahs they won fair and square, even if the corner of their rug is held high by the events swept under it.
The “losers” will scream, “UNFAIR! THEY STOLE THE ELECTION!” and start the endless round of lawsuits and investigations that will plague us for years to come. They will probably be right too. It doesn’t take too many hanging chads to decide an election for someone pond-scummy enough to stoop that low. If you think the campaign has been nasty, rude, and brutish you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The vote counting will make it pale in comparison.
Of course, this is a prediction unlike anything Nate Silver would factor. There are no polls. There are no stats and hunches, no pundit pronouncements or Palin endorsements. It’s not even forward-looking like a self-respecting prediction. It is simply a 100% statement of fact that almost everyone already knows. It doesn’t matter so much who wins this election, it will be stolen whoever is the victor.
May the best thief win.
- Can Online Marketing Trends Predict the 2012 Presidential Election? (prweb.com)
- WATCH: Jimmy Fallon’s Puppy Predicts Who Will Win The Election (huffingtonpost.com)
- The Rise of the Poll Quants (or, the Demise of the TV Pundits) (chronicle.com)
- Political Astrology Blog Gives A Presidential Prediction Rundown (thestarryeye.typepad.com)
- US election day: statistician bloggers give Barack Obama a clear lead (guardian.co.uk)
- Election Day (theaxisofego.com)
- Letterman: Recount Starts Wednesday, Supreme Court Gives Election to Romney December 18 (newsbusters.org)